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Last piece, last take. Which is good, because I'm sick of the wait. It's like a Mexican standoff at recess, this Oscar season. Only it's between former husband and wife, literal blockbuster and smalltime independent, quantity and quality. To take from the soon to be legendary Paul Thomas Anderson, if this swings the wrong way, there will be blood. 

Ryan Peters is dropping in with his picks this week like Nostradamus. And by that I mean he’s coming from 16^th century France and wearing a stupid-ass hat. You heard it here.

Best Director

James Cameron, “Avatar”

Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

Lee Daniels, “Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire”

Quentin Tarantino, “Inglorious Basterds” 

Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Who Will Win If There is No Justice in the World: James Cameron  

This makes for an interesting and well rounded category. Everyone did a hell of a job with their respective films, but you have to love how it comes down to an Oscar version of “War of the Roses,” sans public contempt for one another. If Bigelow wins, she would be the first woman in the history of the Academy to have done so; a crime when you look at the films that many women have made over the years. Regardless, “Locker” really is in a class of its own in terms of war films, let alone those based on the current Iraq War (no doubt the subject of many future films).

However, there's that James Cameron, and his seemingly-endless ego nipping at her heels. Frankly, if he wins, it will not be based on “Avatar” being a better film than “Locker” (it's not). Cameron would win because “Avatar” is so fracking massive that the very concept that it was completed in the manner that it was (developing new 3D technology across the board) would label Cameron an innovator. In many ways he is, but not the Best Director for the 2009 year; not when it comes to the overall film produced.

Besides, Cameron makes for some WEIRD acceptance speeches. Every time he gets in front of a microphone, I cannot understand a thought that comes out of his mouth. Tack that on to his '97 win for the now WILDLY dated “Titanic,” and perhaps some in the Academy may not be willing to revisit “I'm the King of the World!” Pt.2

Ryan’s Take: I’m going to go ahead and second Max’s comment about Cameron making some weird-ass acceptance speeches. Everyone knows about the “I’m the King of the World!” hoopla, but frankly, his Golden Globe speech for Best Director with “Avatar” was infinitely more annoying. First he claimed that he hadn’t prepared a speech (a phrase which should be banned outright from awards shows) because he assumed that Bigelow would win. Seconds later he gave a 30-second speech to his actors in Na’vi, the fictional language from “Avatar.” Nothing says “Opps, I forgot to prepare!” like a canned speech in an imaginary language. Don’t you goddamn lie to me, James!

It might seem like we’re making hay over nothing, but remember: We’re talking about Hollywood. The members of the Academy have absolutely no conception of the outside world, and will hold a lifelong grudge against someone for making the innocent, albeit self-absorbed, mistake of quoting from the movie you were just honored for making.

It’s really Bigelow’s to lose, given that a) no one—except maybe James Cameron—hates her, and b) “The Hurt Locker” really is the best entry on this list. Oh, and the Academy has long been searching for a way to right a wrong ever since it snubbed her in the “Titles That Make You Never Want To See The Movie No Matter How Good It Actually Is” category for her work on “K-19: The Widow Maker.”   

Best Picture

The Hurt Locker

Avatar

Up in the Air

An Education

Precious: Based on the Novel “Push”  by Sapphire

Up

District 9

A Serious Man

The Blind Side

Inglorious Basterds 

What Should Win: The Hurt Locker

What Will Win if 2012 Really Is the End of Days: Ugh...Avatar... 

I'm not sure there has been a recent Oscar race that has amounted the level of tension as this one has; not when it comes to public opinion anyways. On the one side, you have the folks screaming for “Avatar” for reasons beyond understanding. On the other, you have “The Hurt Locker” and its supporters ripping “Avatar” to pieces in terms of characters, writing, acting and overall quality (if you cannot figure out which side of the fence I fall on, stop reading now).

Aside from the foreign market controlled Golden Globes, “Locker”  has been pretty much kicking “Avatar” around the ring, with every guild and major award since then going to “Locker”. However, there has been a lot of press recently over a dipshit moved pulled by one of the four nominated producers for “Locker,” a man named Nicholas Chartier. Breaking an Academy Rule of Conduct, Chartier sent a blanket email to members of the Academy urging them to vote for “Locker” over a “$500 million film”.

Are...you...STUPID!?

I worry about the chances for “Locker” after such a STUPID move. Despite the fact that Chartier has been banned from the ceremony (meaning if “Locker” does win, he will not be on stage to accept) the letter and press went out weeks before voting deadlines were called up; and random select groups from within the Academy are seeing odds that could swing in “Avatar's” favor; many in the Academy see the letter as a massive sign of disrespect. It was, but one should not punish the entire group that made up “Locker” for one massive, boneheaded move.

But hey, the Academy has made some very stupid decisions in recent years (looking at you, “Crash”). Regrettably, what's one more?

Ryan’s Take: Max beat me to the obligatory “Crash” reference. Damn it.

Let me start by saying that I think “The Hurt Locker” is far and away the best picture of the year. It’s one of the few films made about the war in Iraq over the past 7 years that wasn’t a massive flop, which is directly related to the way that it invests in characters over politics. And for what it’s worth, I absolutely loved “Up in the Air.”  Spoiler alert: The scene in which George Clooney’s character visits the home of Vera Farmiga took my legs out from under me; I literally gasped in the theatre.

That said, I just can’t get on board with the “Avatar” haters. I saw it twice, and loved it each time. Is the plot hackneyed? Yes. Is the dialogue awful? Of Course. Do you know how it’s going to end almost from the start? You bet.

But if that’s what you’re focused on, I think you’re missing the point. “Avatar” is a massive technological and imaginative achievement, and pure cinema through and through. I really think that a lot of the people who ballyhoo “Avatar” are reacting less to the movie, and more to either James Cameron’s personality or the massive hype machine surrounding the film. It’s the same impulse whereby we sing the praises of an indie band until they sign with a big label and “sell-out.”  People invariably want to react to success, both in favor and protest of it. Like I said, I think that “The Hurt Locker” and “Up in the air” are both better films, much more deserving of the statue; but if “Avatar” wins, so be it. The earth didn’t crack open to reveal a pit of fire when “Crash” beat the much-superior “Brokeback Mountain,” and it won’t be the end of the world if “Avatar” comes out on top this time.

Boom! I worked in two “Crash”  references.